This study analyses how RED III regulatory requirements shape the Dutch hydrogen market in 2030. Under RED III, 42% of industrial hydrogen consumption must be renewable by 2030, increasing to 60% by 2035. We assess how additionality rules and certificate trading design affect production volumes, imports, regional balancing and investment incentives during the infrastructure build‑up phase.

Model results show that the 42% target will not be met through market-driven production alone. The obligation requires an additional 1.7 TWh of green hydrogen in 2030, consisting of roughly 0.9 TWh extra domestic electrolysis and 0.8 TWh imports (notably green ammonia). The additionality requirement reduces average electrolyser full load hours, lowering overall production efficiency.

Regulatory design strongly influences costs and regional outcomes. Strict mass balancing leads to the highest system costs and has particularly adverse effects in regions with limited local offtake. In contrast, even limited certificate trading flexibility (e.g. 4%) significantly improves market efficiency and moderates cost increases. Regulatory choices are therefore pivotal for both system performance and investment decisions.